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HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  23A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008

800 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE TURK AND CAICOS

ISLANDS...

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Tropical Storm Hanna is becoming more organized, according to the latest satellite imagery and data from the Hurricane Hunters. The latest center report at 3:44 pm EDT found the pressure had dropped 5 mb in just two hours, down to 990 mb. Satellite loops show that wind shear continues to interfere with Hanna’s organization, with most of the heavy thunderstorms limited to the northeast side of the storm. However, the amount and intensity of these thunderstorms has increased in recent hours. Wind shear has dropped to a moderate 15 knots over Hanna–the lowest shear the storm has seen. The direction of the upper level winds creating this shear has shifted from northwesterly to southwesterly today, and this new shear direction should keep Hanna’s heaviest thunderstorms on the north side of the circulation center for the remainder of the storm’s life. The new shear direction was a welcome change for northern Haiti, where Hanna’s flooding rains have killed 26 people. Satellite estimates suggest six inches of rain has fallen on northern Haiti and the northern Dominican Republic from Hanna.

The track forecast for Hanna
Hanna has finally begun its turn to the northwest, after moving farther east than most of the models expected. The next set of 18Z model runs, available tonight at about 8-9 pm EDT, should have a pretty good handle on where Hanna will make landfall, since the storm is done with its erratic movement. A landfall location near the South Carolina/North Carolina border Friday night is my forecast. On Saturday, Hanna will be racing north along the East Coast, bringing tropical storm conditions to the mid-Atlantic and New England states.

The intensity forecast for Hanna
The wind shear is forecast to remain in the moderate to marginal range, 15-25 knots, over the remainder of Hanna’s life. There is a large amount of dry continental air lying between Hanna and South Carolina, which will continue to cause problems for the storm. However, sea surface temperatures are a warm 29°C, with a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) of 40-70, just below the value of 80 typically associated with rapid intensification. The main intensity models–GFDL, HWRF, SHIPS, and LGEM–all keep Hanna as a tropical storm for the remainder of its life. However, given the large size of this storm and its proven resilience to wind shear, I give a 60% chance intensification to a Category 1 hurricane will occur.

Tropical Storm Gustav, currently over the north-central Caribbean, may take a path similar to that of Tropical Storm Fay over the next several days. Tropical rainstorm Fay continues to pound the Deep South with heavy rain and even tornadoes.

gustav

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center reports that Tropical Depression 7 formed Monday in the central Caribbean near the island of Hispaniola.

Monday afternoon, the crew aboard an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane confirmed the system had intensified to Tropical Storm Gustav, the seventh named tropical system of the 2008 hurricane season.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts.

Hurricane watches and warnings are in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. The center of the storm is expected to be near or over southwestern Haiti Tuesday. Heavy rain on the island could lead to potentially life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center forecasters report that the developing storm could reach hurricane strength by Tuesday morning.

Gustav is forecast to make a slow track over Cuba toward the middle of the week before moving into the Straits of Florida this weekend. The system could potentially move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexcio by Labor Day Monday.

Meanwhile, Fay continues to slam the Deep South with heavy rain.

fay

The center of the tropical rainstorm is crawling to the northeast Monday night across eastern Mississippi; however, its effects are being felt from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana.

The Severe Weather Center lists the flood, flash-flood and tornado watches and warnings in effect across the Southeast.

Widely separated bands of heavy rain will continue around the center of circulation into Tuesday as the storm moves into the Tennessee Valley. As the storm begins to lose shape, the threat of large-scale flooding will diminish. However, smaller pockets of heavy rain could produce potentially dangerous localized flooding.

Some areas in the Southeast that are in the midst of a prolonged drought will receive substantial rain,

although the core of heavy rain will likely fall to the west of the hardest-hit drought areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.

According to a U.S. Drought Monitor report released on August 19, 2008, northeastern Georgia and the western Carolinas remain in extreme to exceptional drought conditions.

Fay is directly blamed for 36 deaths overall, most in the Caribbean. Eleven people died in Florida, one in Georgia and one in Alabama.

Stranded residents are ferried out after Tropical Storm Fay flooded their Timber Lake neighborhood Sunday, Aug. 24, 2008, in Tallahassee, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Cannon)

Four people died in traffic accidents and two others drowned in strong surf on Florida’s east coast. On Saturday, a teenager drowned in Cairo, Ga., after being swept away by flood waters near a drainage area.